3 False Predictions for 2011 (that may look good for 2012.)

» Posted by on Jan 3, 2012 in Marketing | 0 comments

3 False Predictions for 2011 (that may look good for 2012.)

This is the time of year (and the day, actually) when the Internet is full of predictions for the year to come.  Without a crystal ball, we thought it would be more fun to take a look at some of last year’s social media predictions to see who guessed right – or wrong.

When you take out the ridiculous or the vague (People will develop social media communications manners?  Really?  Like they have developed driving manners in the last 100 years?) it seems to me that the wrong predictions weren’t really wrong, they were just made in the wrong year.   Social Media experts are immersed in social media all the time, and they seem to guess ahead of the trend.

1.)  Social media expert Erik Qualman wrote this list of predictions for 2011, in which he predicted that Facebook would go public and make the (at the time) current $50 billion dollar valuation look like a bargain.  It looks like Eric was only off by a few months – according to this article in the Wall Street Journal, Facebook will go public in Q2 of 2012, and we’re looking at doubling that $50 billion valuation.

One prediction that I think Erik nailed for 2011: Google will become the next Microsoft and Facebook becomes the next Google.  Yup.

2)  One of our favorite social media sites, Social Media Examiner, put out a large list of predictions from guest experts in 2011.  Some were better than others, but we think that expert Bill Seaver was just ahead of his time when he predicted that we’d see a greater divide between Twitter and Facebook.  “Twitter will become a platform where you can connect with some people in their professional lives, and Facebook will continue to be the platform where you can connect with most people in their personal lives.”  Right now, we’re still seeing a lot of “Waiting in line for a sandwich” type Tweets but we can only hope that this will change soon.

Another one that Social Media Examiner got right: content expert Jim Lodico predicted that social media would have an ever-larger impact in the search engine rankings.  With Google+ pages and YouTube channels now coming in ahead of traditional websites in many cases, that has proved dead on correct.

3) Finally, I have to mention the top prediction for 2011 that did not come true – and that I don’t foresee coming true in 2012, either.  Too many bloggers to count or list predicted that Google would flop again in the social media space.  Referencing Google’s admittedly long list of failures, the gurus predicted that Google+ would be yet another.  At Spalding Barker, we’re not ready to discount Facebook – you can see our earlier articles here and here – but we haven’t seen Google flop yet and I don’t think that we’re going to.

Good luck to all of us this year – off to check our favorite sites for this year’s batch of predictions!

To learn more about Spalding Barker Strategies, visit our homepage or Contact Us to see how we can help your business.



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